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L'inférence, un processus mental, consiste à tirer des conclusions à partir de preuves existantes et d'un raisonnement logique. Elle fait partie intégrante de la pensée critique et de la résolution de problèmes, et trouve de nombreuses applications dans des domaines tels que l'investigation scientifique, l'analyse littéraire et la recherche scientifique. intelligence artificielle[1]. Il existe différentes formes d'inférence : déductive, inductive, abductive, statistique et causale, chacune ayant sa propre méthode et son propre objectif. Par exemple, l'inférence déductive s'attache à tirer des conclusions spécifiques à partir de principes généraux, tandis que l'inférence inductive génère des conclusions générales à partir d'exemples spécifiques. Inversement, l'inférence abductive consiste à formuler des hypothèses éclairées sur la base de preuves accessibles, tandis que les inférences statistiques et causales consistent à interpréter des données afin de tirer des conclusions sur un groupe ou d'établir des liens de cause à effet. Néanmoins, la précision des inférences peut être affectée par des biais, des idées préconçues et des interprétations erronées. Malgré ces obstacles potentiels, il est possible d'améliorer les capacités d'inférence par une pratique régulière, des activités de réflexion critique et l'exposition à une variété de lectures.
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Inferences are steps in raisonnement, moving from premises à logical consequences; etymologically, the word infer means to "carry forward". Inference is theoretically traditionally divided into deduction et induction, a distinction that in Europe dates at least to Aristotle (300s BCE). Deduction is inference deriving logical conclusions from premises known or assumed to be true, with the laws of valid inference being studied in logic. Induction is inference from particular evidence to a universal conclusion. A third type of inference is sometimes distinguished, notably by Charles Sanders Peirce, contradistinguishing abduction from induction.
Various fields study how inference is done in practice. Human inference (i.e. how humans draw conclusions) is traditionally studied within the fields of logic, argumentation studies, and cognitive psychology; intelligence artificielle researchers develop automated inference systems to emulate human inference. Statistical inference uses mathematics to draw conclusions in the presence of uncertainty. This generalizes deterministic reasoning, with the absence of uncertainty as a special case. Statistical inference uses quantitative or qualitative (categorical) data which may be subject to random variations.